After
twenty years, the Cricket World Cup is coming home to the UK. Hurrah! The
trophy may have been over here on tour several times this decade but of course
it has never been hoisted with pride by an England captain. In 1979, Mike
Brearley’s chance collapsed in the final when his side lost their last eight
wickets for just eleven runs, most of them to West Indian Joel Garner. In 1999,
Alec Stewart’s squad failed to escape even the first group stage and Australia
went on to claim the title.
Everyone
seems convinced that 2019 is surely England’s time. They are top of the world
rankings, playing on home soil and playing with great confidence. They are
awash with potential batting match-winners, from Buttler to Bairstow, Roy to
Root, plus the accelerated qualification and selection of Jofra Archer improves
the bowling attack immeasurably. However, two words ring alarm bells: Champions
Trophy. Two summers ago, the home team were equally hot favourites to win here
and I watched with incredulity as Pakistan outplayed them in the semi at
Cardiff. Could it happen again?
The
round-robin format and the deliberate policy of shrinking the playing area to
favour the six-hitters will ensure that the best nations will reach the last
four, eliminating the danger of the least well-supported or sponsored teams
springing upsets. So it’s bye-bye, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. They
are each capable of notching a few victories but that’s all. Nobody doubts the
probability of England and Kohli’s India coming out on top, and the ICC marketing
department’s dream final would involve this pair. They will certainly be the
best supported. But who will join them?
Australia
usually seem to play above themselves in World Cups and tend to be the pundit’s
shoo-in for the semis. I could say the same about Germany in the football
equivalent – and look what happened to them last year! The Aussies may have Smith
and Warner back in the fold but I’m not convinced they have a good enough
line-up to go all the way.
I
would love it if their opponents in the last tournament, New Zealand, could
finally fulfil their potential. They had their best chance in 2015 when Brendon
McCullum was still in the fray but with Williamson, Taylor, Boult, Southee et
al firing on all cylinders, they must be considered contenders. I rate South
Africa’s chances less than evens, largely because I don’t feel that Bavuma
excepted, the new crop are capable of compensating for the lack of form or fitness
of Amla and Steyn and the retirement of AB De Villiers.
My
heart says that a West Indies outfit containing the ageing Chris Gayle and the exciting
25 year-old Shai Hope will blast sufficient attacks out of the water to qualify
but my head says they will probably finish fifth or sixth out of the ten. A
significant factor could be the scheduling of their fixtures away from cities
with the greatest Caribbean heritage so those unforgettable images of
can-clanging West Indian Londoners inspiring those supreme Seventies sides won’t
be repeated four decades on.
Finally
there is Pakistan. Sarfraz Ahmed et al were unexpected winners of the last Champions
Trophy and, despite losing the recent ODI series to England, they could beat
just about anyone. I’ve been mightily impressed by batters Babar Azam and
Fakhar Zaman, and a fit Mohammad Amir is a match for anyone, but in the past
they have thrived as outsiders rather than amongst the favourites.
I’m
not optimistic that this year’s competition will be a vintage one. As with the
IPL, most fixtures will have no immediate bearing on the overall outcome, which
reduces the excitement factor. With every team playing every other, it will be
another month before we have a clear idea of the likely semi-finalists. As with
most twenty-first century sporting events, it’s all about maximising revenue. Inevitably
there are some hotly-anticipated encounters, led by India v Pakistan on 16th
June and England v Australia nine days later, but I reckon the competition will
crystalise around Old Trafford and Edgbaston in early July.
So,
twisting my arm, who will the participants be? I’ll plump for England, India,
Australia and Pakistan, which should bring great comfort to South Africa and
New Zealand! I just hope that the sun shines – especially on the two matches
for which I have tickets! – and that the World Cup will motivate youngsters to
think beyond betting apps and actually take up playing cricket. The game in
England and Wales definitely needs this legacy, although this could depend on
whether or not Eoin Morgan is the man lifting the trophy at Lord’s on 14th
July. Destiny is calling…..
