In the end,
it’s all about who wins on the pitch but in the past the Aussies have benefited
from some early pre-series sledging instead of relying on childish baiting in
the middle. That might have worked when the side led by Border or Waugh were
clearly miles ahead of England. In 2017, any talk of a crushing series victory
won’t seem such a mental sledgehammer. England should have no inferiority complex
this time. However, nor should they be overly optimistic about their own
chances.
In the ICC
Test rankings, England currently sit in third place, two ahead of Australia.
Neither have any kind of recent consistency. Last winter, England were thumped
by India and held 1-1 by Bangladesh but, with Joe Root at the helm, turned things
around in last summer’s home rubbers against South Africa and West Indies. The
Aussies have also suffered an historic defeat by Bangladesh and been beaten by India
so, if anything, are looking shakier than their visitors.
On the face
of it, the Ashes could be decided by the home team’s apparently superior
bowling attack. The batting on each side looks rather shaky. The two skippers
Steve Smith and Joe Root are one and two in the player rankings, while Alastair
Cook and David Warner also occupy places in the top dozen or so. It’s in the
rest of the top six that both nations look creaky. For England, Mark Stoneman
looks in good nick and Jonny Bairstow deserves credit than he is often given. Dawid
Malan has at last made a hundred in England whites. Gary Ballance and James
Vince promise much but can both deliver? With the charmless thug Ben Stokes
sidelined, more responsibility weighs on Moeen Ali’s shoulders, and Chris
Woakes will be expected to hang around with the bat as well as prove he is not
just a useful one-day death bowler.
In the green
baggies, Peter Handscomb has a decent recent record in Tests and Cameron
Bancroft will look to build on last week’s Sheffield Shield double-century.
Thirty-somethings Khawaja and Shaun Marsh certainly won’t put the fear of God
into England’s bowlers, and Tim Paine has been recalled as wicketkeeper despite
not even wearing the gloves for Tasmania. Hmm.
So what about
those bowlers? Four years ago, it was Mitchell Johnson who devastated the
tourists. That feels so long ago it may well have been broadcast in black and
white. Mitchell Starc is probably the best all-format bowler in world cricket
and achieved the rare feat of claiming two hat-tricks in the same match for New
South Wales last month. He’s a leftie, called Mitchell, but that’s no guarantee
of repeating Johnson’s Ashes heroics. Hazelwood, Bird and Cummins are all
mighty quick but also mighty injury-prone. The focus on pace could unravel if
any of them break down.
Nathan Lyon
has just joined the 30-something club and boasts twice as many Test wickets as
Moeen, with a notably superior average. I’m not convinced England’s 20 year-old
leggie Mason Crane will do much damage either. Of course, Root will be turning
to the guile and experience of James Anderson and Stuart Broad to upset the
Aussie batsmen. However, it’ll be interesting to see which of Jake Ball and
Craig Overton – or both? – get to play. As a Somerset fan I’ve followed the
progress of the latter for several years. He has earned his opportunity with
England. Trouble is, should he succeed Down Under, I’m worried he’ll nab a
central contract and consign our county to Division Two next season.
If this
series was to be played in England I reckon Root and co may just edge it. A few
weeks ago, I was predicting something similar for the series in Australia. However, having given much thought I have changed
my mind. I’m going for another narrow Aussie win but should it be 2-1 or 3-2
the other way I won’t be at all surprised. Yes, it’s down to the difference
between the pace attacks but if Root offers Starc a tasty-looking burger and
the bowler is subsequently ruled out by a mysterious illness, things will look
a lot more even.
