As I've written before, the County Championship is gloriously unpredictable. Lancashire have been champions, relegated and promoted in successive seasons and in 2013, title candidates Surrey sank sorrily into Division Two. The second tier boasts quite a few cricketing superstars.
Surrey must surely be favourites to bounce straight back up. Graeme Smith's first season as captain ended prematurely through injury but now, unencumbered by international duties, he should be leading his county from the front. And what a line-up he leads! Pietersen, Meaker, Solanki, Dernbach, Davies, Roy, Tremlett et al should compensate for the departures of de Bruyn and Lewis, but they barly scrambled a win last season with this lot. KP may drop in for the occasional innings to appease sponsors but watch out for Meaker; he took 6-6 last week and, with more of that ilk, will fancy his chances in an England shirt.
They start against Glamorgan, who look a better one-day outfit than four-day. However, wicketkeeper and captain Mark Wallace hasn't been an ever-present for a decasde for no reason, and al-runder Jim Allenby was one of the best players in the whole competition last summer. Michael Hogan was an excellent opening bowler but lacked support. Rudolph and Goodwin lend experience but the Glammies need the likes of Owen, Rees and Wagg to perform, too. Hampshire and Worcestershire also possess some fine players. England's Michael Carberry and Danny Briggs are alongside reliable batsmen Jimmy Adams, young James Vince and the more mature Sean Ervine. The bowling's useful, too, making the Rose Bowl side hopefuls for promotion as well as one-day titles. I can't see the same happening for Worcestershire. The groundstaff may have worked wonders yet again to get the flood-ravaged New Road ready for cricket, but they rely too much on Moeen Ali. If he gets his deserved chance for England in Tests, Worcester must surely struggle.
Essex experienced a topsy-turvy 2013, enjoying big wins but also suffering that embarrassing 20 all out against Lancashire. Alastair Cook (briefly) and Ravi Bopara (perhaps more often) will bolster the batting offered by Pettini, Shah and the ever-promising Jaik Mickelburgh, but many eyes will be on the hopefully rehabilitated Monty Panesar and young seamers Tymal Mills and Reece Topley. Across the Thames estuary, Kent desperately need some reliable bowlers and support for the excellent but ageing Robert Key and Darren Stevens. Gloucestershire are in a similar situation, dependent on Michael Klinger, Hamish Marshall and the Gidman brothers and crossed fingers when they bowl.
A shame to read today of 'keeper Tom Poynton's car accident which killed his father. Understandably Derbyshire's opener versus Leicestershire has consequently been postponed until June. Last year, Derbyshire found a new lease of life in the Championship. Wayne Madsen was a rock as opener, and he has been joined this season by Stephen Moore. Shivnarine Chanderpaul is a legend and when he is unavailable or rested, ex-player Marcus North will surely prove a competent replacement. Palladino, Clare, Groenewald and Wainwright are capable of taking wickets and, provided they sustain early season momentum, Derbyshire are in with a shout of promotion. I wish I could say the same of Leicestershire. Cricinfo's headline says they have 'room to improve'. Well, they can't get much worse in the Championship. Ramnaresh Sarwan leads a mediocre squad which relied almost entirely on Ned Eckersley's runs in 2013. Josh Cobb is an exciting batsman but only in limited overs. Shiv Thakor is out injured until June at least, so the county must look to some young guns like Freckingham, Bucjk and Sykes for the performances needed to lift them up the table. Robbie Williams is also in the squad. Let's hope he can swing when they're winning...
After that weak joke, time for Mystic Mike's predictions. Promoted: Surrey and Hampshire/Derbyshire. Bottom: Leicestershire.
