I've read that sports fans and media prefer it when there is a clear hierarchy, with the favoured few battling it out at the top and perennial strugglers battling to avoid relegation. I can't see it myself. Who wants boring predictable leagues? None months of Premier League football always result in the same four or five clubs at the summit. Yawn. So hooray for cricket's County Championship!
Mind you, I don't think many people predicted 2011's champions Lancashire being relegated the very next season. Yet that is exactly what happened, with essentially the same team. So should last year's winners Warwickshire be sweating in their shoes? In my opinion, no. Maybe it'll be hard to see so many of their bowlers performing so well so consistently in 2013. Wright, Barker, Clarke and Patel were brilliant in the title-winning team. Chris Woakes, if fit, may feature more prominently on England's radar this summer, but he didn't play much for his county last year either. I reckon Jim Troughton's team should be there or thereabouts come September.
It's no secret that Marcus Trescothick is desperate to win the Championship for Somerset at long last, even if they fail in the one-dayers. Sadly, England will rob the batting of Nick Compton (for Tests) and probably Jos Buttler (for ODIs and T20s), but on the plus side Craig Kieswetter should be available, and Alviro Petersen can add solidity to the top order at the start of the summer. The very young bowling attack needs to mature quickly because it's not fair to expect Peter Trego and Steve Kirby to shoulder the burden. Should Gregory, Meschede, Dockrell and the Overton twins break through then Somerset will definitely challenge.
Nottinghamshire collapsed towards the end last year and there's only so much rescuing that Chris Read can do. Should Broad, Swann, Hales, Lumb and Patel all be on England duty, I can't see them as title-winners, even if James Taylor rediscovers his old Leicestershire and Lions form. Middlesex's 2012 campaign was the opposite of Nottinghamshire's, and they powered to third place despite a misfiring batting line-up. Chris Rogers and Adam Voges should be reliable but their strength is in the seam bowling. Murtagh, Roland-Jones, Berg and Finn (if not with England) have now been joined by James Harris, who chose Lord's over just about every other county.
Surrey may have had all the dosh and some big-name stars but their 2012 season really imploded once Tom Maynard died. Graeme Smith's arrival as opener and captain will probably sort out the off-field indiscipline which led to Maynard's drink-fuelled misadventure. If he also achieves the on-field solidity that Justin Langer did with Somerset a few years ago, they will be hopeful of a high placing. The same for Durham who have been pretty consistent in recent years. Ian Blackwell's retirement is a shame, and Michael Di Venuto has also called it a day. However, if Graeme Onions, Callum Thorp, Mitch Claydon and Scott Borthwick are on form they are as good an attack as anybody's. Ben Stokes was sent home from the Lions tour in disgrace but, with England giving him the cold shoulder, hopefully he can rebuild his all-rounder credentials with Durham.
Yorkshire's chances will depend upon the availability of Root, Bairstow and Bresnan, but they have brought in Liam Plunkett from Durham. Mind you, he looked poor last season. Adil Rashid's downward trajectory continued in 2012 but Azeem Rafiq's star is on the rise. Sussex have welcomed back Rory Hamilton-Brown, plus Chris Jordan from Surrey, but veteran run machine Murray Goodwin has left for Glamorgan. Steve Magoffin's wickets were vital last year, and Chris Nash has developed into a top player, not good enough for England but talented enough to shower his county with top-order runs and useful wickets in all forms of cricket. Derbyshire were surprise promotion-winners, owing much to the bowlers Groenewald, Clare, Palladino and Wainwright. Wes Durston has been rejuvenated since being rescued from Unicorns obscurity but Wayne Madsen's side will surely benefit from the arrival of Billy Godleman and Shiv Chanderpaul.
So who will win? After last year's shock relegation of the Red Roses, it really is a lottery. I reckon the top three will feature Surrey, Notts and Warwickshire, while the relegation places will be occupied by two of Somerset, Yorkshire, Derbyshire and Durham. I might have them completely the wrogn way around but that's the beauty of the competition. Division One, as Forest Gump might have said, is like a box of chocolates: you never know what you're gonna get!
