I read somewhere that the World Twenty 20 tournament started last week but as far as I can gather from the action I've seen and the scores in the 'papers, the only matches played in Sri Lanka have been warm-ups.
The ICC will no doubt be delighted that Ireland, Afghanistan, Zimbabwe and Bangladesh have been eliminated but the rules seem to have been arranged to make it extra hard for them to reach the all-important Super Eights. From today's game at Pallekele, it'll be sad to see the last of Shakib al Hasan but Pakistan look to be contenders for the crown.
Mind you, so are all the others! What have we learnt from the first group stage? That Chris Gayle and Brendan McCullum can hit sixes, Luke Wright can blitz second-string bowlers, Indian spinners can bamboozle the English, Shane Watson is a top-class T20 all-rounder and South Africa boast an awesome pace attack. Well, we kinda knew all that anyway.
Who will make the semis? That is much harder to predict. T20 is pretty much a lottery anyway, and that's without the weather playing its fickle hand. On paper, Group 2 looks like the group of death, with Pakistan, India, SA and the Aussies vying to progress. There should be some cracking games there, not least the old Indo-Pakistan rivalry. The tournament probably needs one of the Asian nations to go through but which one? The SA-Australia batle could be interesting, with some excellent pace attacks pitted egainst some extremely experienced limited-over strokeplayers, from the Husseys, Watson and Warner to AB, Amla, Duminy et al.
England may be the reigning champions but Harbajhan Singh made them look foolish the other day, and Mendis must be licking his lips before Sri Lanka meet them next week. By then, Stuart Broad's men may already have secured a place in the last four. New Zealand will need to have McCullum, Franklin et al firing on all cylinders to beat the English. Then come the West Indians. Get Gayle out early on and, despite the presence of Bravo, Samuels and Pollard, they should win. Similarly, in the other half of the contest, see out Narine's four overs then help yourself... Sri Lanka will of course have home advantage but will that prove a double-edged sword?
To answer my question, I'll have to pick straws or simply guess at England, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Australia. If the pitches favour spin bowling, then I'd fancy Pakistan to play Sri Lanka in the final. That is as far as I dare predict at this stage!
