One of the fun aspects of any World Cup is anticipating an upset, when one of the big guns gets beaten by a non-Test playing side. Sadly, when it comes to cricket, it's comparatively rare, and the chances of an Ireland or Canada claiming the trophy itself are non-existent. Many minnows have relished the opportunity to perform on cricket's biggest stage, including Bermuda, the UAE, Namibia and Scotland. There have been surprises before, of course. For instance, nobody really expected Sri Lanka to go all the way in 1996, even if they did have Test status, and Bangladesh's Group B victory over India four years ago effectively dumped the favourites out of the competition.
So will Zimbabwe, Canada, Ireland, Kenya or the Netherlands land any knockout blows in the coming weeks? I reckon it's a distinct possibility. However, with an expanded early Group stage, chances of a repetition of 2007, when Ireland's triumph over Pakistan and tie with Zimbabwe meant Inzamam-ul-Haq's men were sent packing well before schedule, have been drastically reduced. Organisers say the seven-team groups ensures all teams get to play at least six matches. True, but the ICC are desperate to keep the big guns in the knock-out phase to maximise interest and revenue!
Ireland have lost all three of their warm-ups so far and a victory over the Dutch is their best chance of a result when the tournament proper begins. India, South African and England will be determined not to slip up as Pakistan did four years ago.
The Netherlands made their World Cup debut fifteen years ago, making little impression. Interestingly, Bas Zuiderent made his ODI debut against New Zealand in that competition and has played in every World Cup game his country has played in, a rare feat, and is due to line up again this year. However, Ryan Ten Doeschate is the main weapon in the Dutch armoury. Ostensibly an all-rounder but 'Tendo' is one of the best limited-over batsman in international cricket and would probably merit a place in England's squad if he hadn't rejected their advances last year. His 98 not out this week against Kenya showed how destructive he can be, but he will need to produce his best against the world's best bowlers. He and Zuiderent combined to beat Scotland in 2007 but unless Ten Doeschate or young Ben Kervezee get lucky, the Dutch will probably go home winless.
Canada have also played in three World Cups, starting in 1979 when they were embarrassingly bowled out by England or just 45 after 40 painful overs! In 2003, Austin Codrington's 5-27 helped beat Bangladesh but that was their only success. They also qualified for the tournament in the Caribbean but, whilst showing they could score 200+ against top opposition, their bowling attack was predictably toothless. Wicket-keeper, batsman and now captain, India-born Ashish Bagai is Canada's best hope but as his previous highest World Cup score is a mere 37, intense prayer may be a better bet.
Officially, Kenya are ranked lowest of the fourteen nations participating in 2011. However, they have been the team most likely to spring a surprise in previous competitions. At least they have beaten some of their fellow Associate members in World Cups gone by and in Steve Tikolo and Thomas Odoyo have players of considerable international experience. Indeed they first played together in the World Cup against India in 1996 then three years later their Kenyan team gave reigning champs Sri Lanka a few jitters with a 161-run sixth wicket partnership between Maurice Odumbe and Alpesh Vadher.
However, in 2003, they shocked the cricket establishment by not only giving a few sides a bloody nose but also reaching the semi-finals! In the Pool stage, they defeated a full-strength Sri Lanka by 51 runs in Nairobi, overcame Bangladesh and officially beat New Zealand after the opposition forfeited for safety reasons. In the Super Sixes stage, Zimbabwe, including Andy Flower and Heath Streak, became their next victims and it took Tendulkar and Ganguly at their best to end the Africans' remarkable run. There was no repeat in 2007 although Tikolo starred in their defeat by England.
Zimbabwe may no longer be an official Test playing nation but, under Elton Chigumbura, they have the capability to post a challenging total. Sean Ervine's withdrawal to prolong his career in England is a huge blow to Zimbabwe but they'll be looking to beat other minnows and sneak a win over New Zealand or Pakistan to earn a quarter-final place. Their greatest moment came in their very first World Cup match 28 years ago. Against an attack featuring Lillee, Thomson, Hogg and Lawson, the young nation, skippered by top-scorer Duncan Fletcher (yes, that one!) claimed a memorable win over Australia. How they would love a repeat result in the same fixture next Monday.
There may be many talented players bidding to achieve recognition from professional counties, states and provinces around the world but it will take an enormous amount of luck for one of the Affiliate countries to reach the quarter-finals. It will be fun watching out for a surprise, though.
